Scenario Planning Training Using System Dynamics for Provincial Governments

for Provincial Governments and Bappenas

Background and Rationale

Indonesia’s commitment to climate change mitigation and green economy transformation is embedded in the National Long-Term Development Plan (RPJPN) 2025-2045 and the National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2025-2029. These frameworks include targets on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity reduction and position low-carbon development (Pembangunan Rendah Karbon/PRK) as a strategic pathway to balance economic growth with environmental sustainability.

Achieving PRK targets requires consistent implementation across all levels of government, particularly at the sub-national level where development programmes are designed and executed through provincial planning instruments such as RPJMD and RKPD. However, low-carbon development policy implementation involves complex cross-sector interactions (e.g., energy, land use, agriculture, waste, transport, and blue carbon), long feedback loops, delayed effects, and potential trade-offs among development objectives. These dynamics often make it difficult for planners to anticipate unintended consequences and to identify policy leverage points using conventional linear planning tools.

A systems-based approach is therefore essential. System thinking and system dynamics provide a practical analytical framework to understand cause-effect relationships, feedback mechanisms, and long-term behavioural patterns in complex development systems. Through system dynamics modelling, planners can explore alternative scenarios, test policy assumptions, and generate more robust and integrated strategies for low-carbon development.

This training is designed as a targeted capacity strengthening intervention to support provincial government planners, particularly Bappeda, by equipping them with foundational knowledge and applied skills in system thinking and system dynamics to support scenario-based planning for low-carbon development.

Objectives

The training programme will:

3. Strengthen participants’ understanding of system thinking and system dynamics concepts and their relevance for low-carbon development planning at provincial level.
4. Build practical skills to translate provincial low-carbon development challenges into system representations (problem framing, system boundary, key variables).
5. Enable participants to develop an initial Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and/or Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD) relevant to their provincial context.
6. Introduce scenario planning logic using system dynamics and support participants to interpret model structures for policy insight and decision support

Scope of Work

The selected organisation/consultant will design, facilitate, and deliver a three-day, practice-oriented training on system dynamics for scenario planning. The training is expected to be delivered in-person in Jakarta.

Required Expertise and Organisational Profile

The selected organisation must demonstrate:

1. Proven experience in system thinking and system dynamics capacity building
   Demonstrated experience in designing and delivering training or capacity development programmes on system thinking, system dynamics, or systems-based policy analysis for government institutions, policy organisations, academic institutions, or development agencies. Experience working with public-sector planners or policy analysts is strongly preferred.
2. Technical expertise in low-carbon development and policy analysis
   Strong understanding of low-carbon development, climate mitigation, green economy, or sustainable development policy, with the ability to apply system dynamics approaches to analyse cross-sectoral interactions, policy trade-offs, and long-term development impacts.
3. Understanding of Indonesia’s planning and institutional context
   Familiarity with Indonesia’s national and sub-national development planning systems (including RPJPN, RPJMN, RPJMD, and RKPD), inter-sectoral coordination challenges, and policy decision-making processes, or demonstrated capacity to rapidly contextualise training materials to Indonesia’s institutional environment.
4. Qualified training and facilitation team
   A multidisciplinary team including a lead facilitator with strong expertise in system dynamics and systems-based policy analysis, supported by facilitators with experience in participatory modelling, scenario planning, or policy-oriented analytical tools. Curriculum vitae (CVs) of all proposed trainers and facilitators must be provided.
5. Practice-oriented and adult-learning training methodology
   Proven track record in delivering interactive, practice-oriented training programmes using adult-learning approaches, including hands-on modelling exercises, group work, facilitated discussions, and application of real-world policy cases, rather than purely lecture-based instruction.
6. Organisational capacity and governance
   A registered organisation (not an individual consultant) with demonstrated organisational capacity, including project management systems, quality assurance processes, financial management capability, and prior experience delivering donor-funded or government-commissioned programmes in line with value-for-money principles.

7. Budget and Logistics

The budget for this contract will cover personal fees and equipment (LED package & stage). Please use the template provided in the following https://bit.ly/4cemTLN.

Proposals should clearly itemise costs and demonstrate value for money in line with FCDO procurement principles.

How to Apply

The submission deadline for application is 15 February 2026, by 11 PM WIB (Jakarta Time). Please send your application to a5043procurement@opml.co.uk with email subject line ‘Facilitator  for Scenario Planning Training Using System Dynamics for Provincial Governments’.

It is important for applicant to read carefully the TOR (attached).

For clarifications, please contact: a5043procurement@opml.co.uk.